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Bitcoin ETF Exodus: A Temporary Retreat or a Deeper Shift?

Bitcoin ETF Exodus: A Temporary Retreat or a Deeper Shift?

Published:
2026-01-10 20:11:15
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[TRADE_PLUGIN]BTCUSDT,BTCUSDT[/TRADE_PLUGIN]

On November 20, 2025, the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF market experienced a seismic shift, recording its largest single-day net outflow since February of that year, with a staggering $903 million withdrawn by investors. This mass exodus was led by industry giants, with BlackRock's IBIT fund seeing $355.5 million flee, followed by significant outflows from Grayscale's GBTC ($199.4 million) and Fidelity's FBTC ($190.4 million). The sell-off was not isolated to a few products but spanned across eight different funds, indicating a broad-based reduction in crypto exposure across the institutional and retail investor spectrum. Market analysts and seasoned observers are largely attributing this dramatic shift to a rapid deterioration in overall risk appetite within the financial markets. The prevailing sentiment suggests that investors are rotating capital away from perceived higher-risk, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and into more traditional safe-haven instruments amidst growing macroeconomic uncertainties and potential regulatory headwinds. This event serves as a stark reminder of the cryptocurrency market's inherent volatility and its sensitivity to broader financial market sentiment. However, for long-term bulls, such episodes of capitulation are often viewed not with alarm, but as potential consolidation phases within a larger secular bull trend. Historically, sharp outflows and price corrections have frequently laid the groundwork for stronger subsequent rallies by shaking out weak hands and establishing more robust support levels. The key question moving forward is whether this represents a temporary risk-off reallocation or the beginning of a more sustained bearish cycle for crypto-linked investment products. The scale and breadth of the outflows warrant close monitoring of follow-on data, including whether this trend continues or stabilizes, and how Bitcoin's price action responds to this significant reduction in ETF-held liquidity.

Bitcoin ETFs See Record Outflows as Risk Appetite Fades

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $903 million in net outflows on November 20—the largest single-day withdrawal since February’s tariff shock. BlackRock’s IBIT led the exodus with $355.5 million fleeing, while Grayscale’s GBTC and Fidelity’s FBTC lost $199.4 million and $190.4 million respectively. The rout spanned eight funds, signaling a broad retreat from crypto exposure.

Analysts attribute the shift to deteriorating risk sentiment, exacerbated by Nvidia’s earnings volatility. ‘This isn’t a bear market pivot,’ notes BTC Markets’ Rachael Lucas, ‘but liquidity is tightening across tech assets.’ The data underscores how macro tremors now Ripple faster through digital asset markets.

Ray Dalio Maintains 1% Bitcoin Allocation Amid Quantum Computing Concerns

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, confirmed holding approximately 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin during a CNBC interview. The billionaire investor reiterated longstanding concerns about Bitcoin's viability as a reserve currency, citing its public blockchain traceability as a barrier to adoption by major nations.

Dalio warned that advances in quantum computing could expose Bitcoin to security vulnerabilities. While he previously recommended a 15% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin and gold combined, his personal preference leans toward gold. The hedge fund manager's bubble indicator currently shows the U.S. economy at 80% of bubble levels comparable to the 1929 and 2000 market crashes.

Market Makers Grapple with Liquidity Crunch After October Crypto Collapse

The cryptocurrency market continues to reel from October's violent liquidation event that erased $20 billion in value. Tom Lee of Fundstrat suggests market makers' balance sheets may have sustained structural damage during the October 10 flash crash, when Bitcoin plummeted from $121,000 to $86,900 in a matter of hours.

Multicoin Capital's Tushar Jain identified systematic selling patterns during U.S. trading hours—a telltale sign of forced liquidation. The situation echoes 2022's liquidity crisis, which took eight weeks to fully resolve. While no trading firm has publicly acknowledged insolvency, blockchain analysts report ongoing position unwinding.

'This has all the hallmarks of sharks circling wounded market makers,' Lee observed, noting the concentrated selling pressure resembles previous deleveraging cycles. The market appears caught in a vicious cycle: damaged balance sheets beget forced selling, which further depresses asset values.

Bitcoin Whale Exits $1.3 Billion Position as Long-Term Holders Retreat

Owen Gunden, a prominent Bitcoin investor and former LedgerX board member, liquidated his entire 11,000 BTC holdings worth $1.3 billion over the past month. The final tranche of 2,249 BTC ($228 million) was moved to Kraken on November 20, marking a full exit from the market.

The sell-off coincides with Bitcoin breaking below the $90,000 support level, a psychological threshold for traders. Long-term holders—typically accumulators during price corrections—are now net sellers, diverging from historical patterns.

Unrealized losses have reached their highest level since January 2024, with 6.96 million BTC held at a loss. Whale wallets holding >1,000 BTC declined in October, while those with >10,000 BTC reduced exposure by 1.5%, according to Bitfinex data.

The market faces mounting pressure as institutional players like Gunden exit. 'When the whales swim away, the tides turn,' remarked a veteran trader, referencing the growing dominance of short-term speculators in current price action.

Bitcoin's Cyclical Downturn Sets Stage for Historic Rally, Says Veteran Analyst

Bitcoin's current price decline aligns with its historical four-year cycles, a pattern veteran analyst Peter Brandt identifies as the precursor to a major bull market. Brandt, who holds 40% of his portfolio in BTC, asserts this downturn is 'the best possible development' for Bitcoin's long-term growth.

Technical analysis suggests the cryptocurrency is in the bearish phase of its cycle, which Brandt predicts will culminate in a record-breaking surge. His projection: Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by Q3 2029, despite MicroStrategy's higher average purchase price.

The market's panic contrasts with Brandt's bullish outlook, framing the slump as a necessary consolidation before the next parabolic advance.

Cryptoquant CEO Sees Bullish Setup Despite Bitcoin Dropping Below $85K

Bitcoin's slide below $85,000 triggers market panic, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunging to single digits. Analysts debate whether this signals a bear market, with some predicting further drops to $60,000.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju offers a contrarian perspective: long-term holders may find current levels an attractive accumulation zone. The institutional hold strategy—exemplified by Michael Saylor's unwavering position—effectively reduces circulating supply, potentially preventing the classical cycle bottom at $56,000.

Macro liquidity injections through mid-2024 could catalyze a sentiment reversal. 'Selling now is a high-risk move,' Ju warns, suggesting the bull cycle may merely be pausing rather than ending.

|Square

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